Global Oil Market to Return to Surplus in Q4 2026, Larger Supply Build Expected in 2027: IEA
The agency said supply will outpace demand by 1.7 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter as inventories rose 52 million barrels in October.
- On Nov 13, the International Energy Agency reported the global oil market will return to a surplus in the fourth quarter of 2026, marking the first balance since the outbreak of war in Iran.
- Rising OPEC production and recovering Gulf exports fueled the shift, as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries pumped 41.23 million barrels per day in October, up 2.04 million from September.
- Global oil inventories rose by 52 million barrels in October, marking the first monthly increase since June, while supply is expected to average 105 million barrels per day this quarter.
- International crude prices witnessed a sharp correction following the IEA report, with Brent crude down 0.1% at USD 95.71 a barrel after the agency's announcement.
- The IEA projects a 2027 supply surplus of about 3.8 million barrels per day, though continued Middle East shipping attacks could threaten this recovery and undermine the market rebalancing.
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The global oil market must re-register a supply surplus in the last quarter of this year, for the first time since the beginning of the war in Iran, as the recovery of exports from the Middle East exceeds demand, it informed the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Friday in its monthly report. Exclusive material for subscribers. To have full access, access the link of the subject and register.
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Global oil market to return to surplus in Q4 2026, larger supply build expected in 2027: IEA
The global oil market is expected to return to a surplus in the fourth quarter of 2026, with a larger surplus anticipated in 2027 as production recovers faster than demand, according to the International Energy Agency's (IEA) November Oil Market Report.
Today, the International Energy Agency (IEA) projected a world oil supply surplus of about 1.7 million barrels per day during the last quarter of 2026, as world oil demand declined.
World oil supply is expected to exceed demand in the last quarter of 2026 for the first time since the outbreak of the war in Iran at the end of February, says the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Friday.
In the monthly report on the oil market published today, the IEA considers that the supply contraction, which has been very considerable since the beginning of the war waged by the United States and Israel against Iran in late February, will continue to slow and will again be above 2025 levels for the first time since the crisis in March.
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