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Africa Faces 86 Mn Tonne Fuel Shortfall by 2040: AFC

The Africa Finance Corporation said imports already exceed 70% of refined fuel and warned that chokepoints and conflict could deepen shortages.

  • On Thursday, the Africa Finance Corporation warned that Africa faces an 86 million-tonne fuel shortfall by 2040, as the continent imports over 70 percent of its refined fuel.
  • Conflict in the Middle East has effectively shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a critical fuel conduit accounting for one-fifth of global transport, leaving East Africa vulnerable to severe supply shocks.
  • Fuel import dependence is rising from 74 million tonnes in 2023 to 86 million by 2040; AFC chief economist Rita Babihuga-Nsanze noted Africa holds 80 percent of phosphate reserves yet produces only 20 percent of global stock.
  • Africa's richest man, Aliko Dangote, proposed building a 650,000-barrel refinery in East Africa during the AFC summit, contingent on support from Kenyan President William Ruto and Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni.
  • Kenyan President William Ruto stressed that Africa must stop relying on external capital; Kenya announced infrastructure plans last year including 50 new hydroelectric dams and 10,000 megawatts of power generation.
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Africa faces 86 mn tonne fuel shortfall by 2040: AFC

The Iran war has exposed Africa's vulnerability to fuel chokepoints and is heading for a 86 million tonne fuel shortfall by 2040, the Africa Finance Corporation (AFC) said Thursday.

·Cherokee County, United States
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The Standard broke the news in Nairobi, Kenya on Thursday, April 23, 2026.
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