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Red Sox Host the Blue Jays to Begin 3-Game Series
Dimers’ 10,000-game simulations give Boston only a narrow edge and project Over 8.5 runs as the top value play.
The Boston Red Sox host the Toronto Blue Jays at Fenway Park on Friday to open a three-game series, marking the seventh matchup between these AL East teams this season.
Boston enters looking to restart momentum after Baltimore ended its franchise-record-tying 15-game winning streak Wednesday, while Toronto arrives in different form, dropping each of its past two series against the White Sox and Rays.
Toronto starter Trey Yesavage enters with a 4-5 record and 3.78 ERA, while Boston counters with Patrick Sandoval at 4.82 ERA; the Blue Jays hold a 5-1 advantage in the season series.
Dimers simulations ran 10,000 games projecting a tight contest, assigning Toronto a 48.8% win probability; the model identifies a 3.7% edge for the Blue Jays despite Boston favoring in betting markets.
Both clubs face significant roster challenges, with numerous players including Red Sox catcher Triston Casas and Blue Jays infielder Addison Barger on the 60-Day injured list, complicating the series outlook.