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'One Battle After Another,' 'Sinners' or an upset? Critics predict who will win Oscars' top crown

A late surge for Ryan Coogler's 'Sinners' challenges Paul Thomas Anderson's 'One Battle After Another' in a race with nearly equal support among over 10,000 Academy voters.

  • As members filled ballots before Thursday's 8 p.m. Eastern deadline, Sinners and One Battle After Another are locked in a two-film Best Picture race headed for a photo finish.
  • Many voters described a split between consensus and personal choices, as One Battle After Another led precursor prizes while the Academy Screening Room rule delayed voting and nudged ballots this year.
  • In the final 48 hours, Sean Penn gained late momentum, making him a plausible supporting actor winner, while Wunmi Mosaku draws votes from both Sinners and One Battle After Another supporters.
  • A win would be a boost for theatrical moviegoing and Warner Bros., and Sean Penn could add a third Oscar after late surge in ballots.
  • The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences lists 11,126 members with 10,136 active voters, and Autumn Durald Arkapaw could make history as the first woman to win cinematography, with the March 15 broadcast potentially delivering unexpected drama.
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By Lindsey Bahr and Jake Coyle. The Oscars just got more interesting. With a few last-minute twists, courtesy of the Screen Actors Guild Awards, the 98th Academy Awards broadcast on Sunday, March 15, could have more drama and heartbreak than anyone expected even a week ago. As members of the film academy complete their ballots before the Thursday 8 p.m. ET deadline, Associated Press film journalists Lindsey Bahr and Jake Coyle also make their fi…

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abc 7 LA broke the news in Los Angeles, United States on Wednesday, March 4, 2026.
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