New Poll Shows Neck-and-Neck Senate Race, Double-Digit Lead for Governor in SC Midterms
- CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten said Sunday that recent data indicates a 71% chance of a House 'blowout' favoring Democrats, defined as a party securing at least 230 seats.
- President Donald Trump's net approval rating has declined to minus 35 points in Reuters-Ipsos polling, down from minus 24 in July, driving these Democratic projections.
- In the United States Senate, Enten projects a 57% chance that Democrats will secure at least 52 seats for a majority with room to spare, while Republicans have a 24% chance of winning 51 seats.
- Overall, there is an 81% probability that one party will emerge from Senate elections with a decisive majority, while Democrats need to net four seats across both chambers to flip control of Congress.
- As midterm elections approach next week, Enten cautioned that congressional polling has historically underestimated Republican support in 15 of 16 cycles since 1994, introducing uncertainty into projections.
47 Articles
47 Articles
Prediction Markets Favor Democratic Congress Sweep
“The 2026 U.S. midterm election will be held a week from Tuesday, with the Republican Party looking to defend majorities in both the House and Senate, though Democrats are seen as two-to-one favorites to flip both chambers blue on prediction markets,” CNBC reports. “Speculators on platform Kalshi place a 63% chance that Democrats win control […]
Blue wave or big polling error? Here's why it's hard to tell
A major problem with predicting who will win the Senate in next Tuesday’s midterm elections is that the signs of a blue wave and a polling miss look alike. Democrats currently lead in nearly all the most competitive Senate races a week out from the election, with Republicans clinging to leads of less than 1 […]
More than 30 million Americans have already voted in the 2026 midterm elections, according to data through Oct. 26. Early voting provides a snapshot of turnout in the election that will determine which party controls the U.S. Congress. However, the number of votes cast so far does not indicate which candidates voters support or which party has an advantage. The data includes votes cast in person and ballots mailed in before Election Day, Nov. 3.…
U.S. Elections 2026: Follows the Live Results of Early Vote in the U.S. How Many People Already Voted in Florida and Texas, and What the Figures Show About the Democratic-Republican Dispute · Global Voices
Coverage Details
Bias Distribution
- 36% of the sources are Center
Factuality
To view factuality data please Upgrade to Premium
