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Brazil’s Lula regains narrow edge over Bolsonaro in BTG/Nexus poll

  • On Monday, Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula regained a slim lead over Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a simulated runoff for next month's election, according to a BTG Pactual/Nexus poll, though the race remained statistically tied.
  • In the first-round scenario, Lula leads with 42% of the vote while Bolsonaro follows at 37%, marking gains from the previous survey where Lula polled at 39% and Bolsonaro at 35%.
  • Should no candidate exceed 50% on October 4, a runoff advances to October 25, where the poll projects Lula at 47% and Bolsonaro at 46% in head-to-head matchup.
  • Nexus surveyed 2,003 people between September 11 and 13; the poll carries a 2 percentage point margin of error, meaning the race remains statistically competitive.
  • Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, son of President Jair Bolsonaro, is considered market-friendly; Brazilian assets rallied last week when he polled ahead of Lula for the first time since March.
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The petist reversed the trend of the previous week's uprising and now appears numerically ahead of the main opponent in the direct strike

·São Paulo, Brazil
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Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has regained a slight lead over right-wing senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a simulated run-off vote ahead of next month's elections, according to a poll conducted by the National Election Commission.

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According to a new poll, Lula da Silva maintains a marginal lead over Flavio Bolsonaro (47% vs. 46%) in a potential second round of the Brazilian elections, with the battle remaining in limbo.

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Research points to technical tie between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro; STF analyzes case involving Alexandre de Moraes and market follows decisions on interest in Brazil and the United States The post Lula has 47% against 46% of Flávio Bolsonaro in possible 2nd turn, says BTG/Nexus apareceu primeiro em Jornal Option.

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Bias Distribution

  • 34% of the sources lean Left, 33% of the sources are Center, 33% of the sources lean Right
34% Left

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BCharts Fórum broke the news on Monday, September 14, 2026.
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