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It's the End of the World as We Know It, per a Physicist's 1960 Prediction
The paper used 24 population estimates over 2,000 years and argued that falling birth rates later undercut its forecast.
- On Friday, November 13, 2026, the predicted "doomsday" passed without incident as global population stood at roughly 8.3 billion. Experts noted humanity would "wake up to an ordinary day," refuting the 1960 mathematical projection of infinite growth.
- In 1960, Heinz von Foerster, a University of Illinois professor, published "Doomsday: Friday, 13 November, A.D. 2026" in Science. He and co-authors Patricia M. Mora and Lawrence W. Amiot modeled population growth spanning 2,000 years that mathematically "approached infinity."
- Historian Alan MacEachern noted von Foerster, a former stage magician, used "theatrical presentation" to highlight overpopulation concerns. While some scientists labeled the work "manifestly absurd," the equation remained influential in textbooks throughout the 1970s and 1980s.
- Global birth rates plummeted after 1960, contradicting the model's assumption of unchecked growth. The United Nations now projects population will peak at roughly 10 billion in the 2080s, diverging significantly from the infinite forecast.
- Reflecting on the episode, researchers view it as a cautionary tale about extrapolating historical trends without accounting for human adaptation. Scientists emphasize that "a little humility goes a long way" when interrogating modern predictions of catastrophe, including those regarding AI.
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The world is ending today: that is what scientist Heinz von Foerster predicted in 1960. According to him, the world population would become literally infinitely large on Friday, November 13, 2026, so that people would crush each other. "With that prediction, he primarily wanted to warn against rapid population growth," explains scientist Francis Heylighen (VUB).
·Brussels, Belgium
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In 1960, a group of scientists feared that the world's population would grow so large that it would be our downfall. The prediction holds an important lesson for us today.
·Copenhagen, Denmark
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Coverage Details
Total News Sources160
Leaning Left24Leaning Right21Center25Last UpdatedBias Distribution36% Center
Bias Distribution
- 36% of the sources are Center
36% Center
L 34%
C 36%
R 30%
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