IEA warns 2026 oil supply gap will widen on delayed return of normal Gulf flows
The agency cut its oil demand outlook by 940,000 barrels a day and said global stocks are drawing at record rates.
- On Friday, September 11, 2026, the International Energy Agency downgraded its global oil outlook, forecasting a 5.7 million bpd supply decline in 2026 and a 2.5 million bpd demand drop this year.
- Protracted wars, including the Russia-Ukraine conflict in its fifth year, delay Middle East energy flows as the Iran war drags on without resolution, forcing the IEA to push recovery expectations into 2027.
- Brent crude prices surged toward $110 a barrel this week for the first time since May, while global stocks fell by 3.1 million bpd in August as the world consumed inventories at record pace.
- Surging diesel prices have hit record highs, straining a global refining system already stretched to the limit and suppressing consumption amid the tight market conditions.
- The market now faces an average global oil deficit of about 1.7 million bpd this year, deeper than the 1.3 million bpd shortfall reported last month, with supply surplus recovery delayed until 2027.
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According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the global oil supply is expected to decline as Iran's war continues, delaying the return of flows from the Middle East to 2027.
The International Energy Agency estimates that demand will be reduced by 2.5 million barrels per day by 2026. The organization worsens its calculations and estimates that the war has already brought 5.7 million barrels per day out of the market.
The IEA adjusts the demand for oil by 2026, affected by tensions in the Middle East and high prices. Projected consumption is 102.44 mb/d. The conflict between Iran and the US in the Strait of Hormuz and the fall in Gulf exports impact global production, which would recover in 2027.
Reformatorisch Dagblad
welingelichtekringen.nlThe International Energy Agency (IEA) has further lowered its forecast for global oil demand for this year. The Paris-based agency cites the recent escalation of the war in the Middle East and rising fuel prices as the reason.
Today, Friday, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said: the global oil supply as well as the demand for it will be lower than expected earlier this year, as the lack of progress towards ending the war in the Middle East delays the return of oil flows to normal levels for a year and drives fuel prices to rise.
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