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Harris County Early Voting on Pace to Surpass 2022 Turnout, but Who’s Showing up at the Polls?

Nearly 5 million Texans have voted early as analysts say the state is ahead of its 2022 midterm pace.

  • Harris County set a midterm record on the first day of early voting, surpassing the 2018 benchmark with more than 104,000 in-person votes. Yet experts caution that record turnout does not guarantee Democratic victory, as the party lost statewide in 2018 despite similar participation.
  • Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994, giving Republicans a structural advantage. Harris County, the state's most populous county, accounts for approximately 1 out of every 7 votes cast statewide, making it a critical battleground.
  • Political science professor Mark Jones says roughly 4 out of 5 early voters participated in the 2022 midterm election. Analysis of voter records shows Democratic-leaning voters turned out at a higher rate initially, though Republicans could narrow the gap in final voting days.
  • Jones cautioned against over-interpreting early vote numbers, noting that Texas polls have historically missed results by 3 to 5 points. Because Texas voters do not register by political party, early figures provide an incomplete picture of actual voting patterns.
  • Early voting for the November 3 general election continues through Friday, offering final clues about whether late-arriving voters will shift the political balance. The outcome remains uncertain until all ballots are counted.
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In Texas, 4.5 million have voted ahead, 50% more than in 2022, with greater Democratic mobilization.The participation is 23.4%.The southern state, key in the Senate contest, sees Talarico surpass Paxton in polls. Trump visits to reinforce Republican support.

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CW39 Houston broke the news on Sunday, October 25, 2026.
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