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Hamilton holds slight lead over Marshall in Kansas Senate contest: Poll

Hamilton leads Marshall 49% to 45% as independents and early voters break his way, according to Emerson College Polling.

  • On Friday, October 30, an Emerson College Polling survey of 800 likely voters found Democrat Adam Hamilton leading incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall 49% to 45% in Kansas's Senate race.
  • Kansas, which has not elected a Democratic senator since the 1930s, now appears suddenly competitive as nonpartisan analysts classify the race as a 'toss-up' between Hamilton and Marshall.
  • Voters identified the economy as their top issue at 44%, with diesel prices in Kansas nearly doubling over the past year from $3.46 to $6.04 per gallon, directly affecting agricultural communities.
  • Early voters currently favor Hamilton 66% to 32%, while prediction markets show Hamilton at 54.5% probability, signaling a competitive race heading into November 3.
  • While facing a class-action lawsuit alleging illegal interest rates on medical bills, Marshall will receive support as Republican Donald Trump plans to visit Salina, Kansas, this Sunday.
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The Hill broke the news in Washington, United States on Friday, October 30, 2026.
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