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GOP Faces Redistricting Risks After Election Setbacks in Urban Areas

This year, GOP reversals in urban areas and immigrant communities are threatening redistricting plans demanded by President Donald Trump after cities in Florida, New Jersey and Virginia returned to Democratic voting patterns in off-year elections this past November.
Michael Foley's analysis shows experts point to souring on immigration enforcement, economic disappointment, and increased Democratic campaign spending as key drivers, while local Republican leaders warn immigration arrests this year caused a backlash.
In New Jersey's 9th Congressional District, Mikie Sherrill won decisively this year in a majority-minority, 39% immigrant district, while Prince William County saw Abigail Spanberger’s support rise to 67%, up from 57% last year.
One redrawn Texas district now appears likely to go Democratic as the majority-Hispanic 28th Congressional District shifts, the 34th becomes a tossup, and California's retaliatory plan targets five Democratic seats.
Analysts warn Texas Republicans may gain fewer seats than expected, noting the pattern is hard to extrapolate and rising immigration arrests this year could reshape Hispanic and immigrant voters' attitudes.

Insights by Ground AI