Global Market: Goldman Sachs Sees Brent Crude Trading at $80-$90 Until Iran Conflict Outlook Clears
Goldman Sachs said visible oil inventories fell 6.3 million barrels a day as Gulf, Red Sea and Russian flows tightened.
- Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude to trade in an $80-$90 per barrel range until confirmation of a new U.S.-Iran nuclear deal or significant conflict escalation, the bank said Tuesday.
- Three separate geopolitical crises simultaneously constrain flows through the Hormuz Strait, the Red Sea, and the Black Sea, driving Persian Gulf exports to about 36% of pre-war levels from nearly 80% in early July.
- Global visible oil inventories fell by 6.3 million barrels per day over two weeks, driven by reduced Gulf and Red Sea flows, a 1.3 million barrel-per-day drop in Russian exports, and stronger Asian imports; Saudi shipments declined 2.4 million barrels per day year-over-year.
- Goldman estimates spot Brent's fair value at about $80 a barrel despite ongoing Middle East uncertainty, though the bank notes physical oil markets continue to tighten even as Brent retreated to the low-to-mid $80s following delayed U.S. strikes on Iran.
- Analyst Samantha Dart outlined scenarios from $70 to $120 per barrel, with worst-case pricing reaching $120 in Q4 this year and averaging around $100 next year; Brent's 2025 swing from $138.21 to $61.08 dwarfs the $22.71 full-year range it traded in 2025.
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The Economic Times
Times of IndiaGlobal Market: Goldman Sachs sees Brent crude trading at $80-$90 until Iran conflict outlook clears
Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent crude prices between $80 and $90 per barrel. This range persists until clarity emerges on US-Iran nuclear talks. Physical oil markets are tightening significantly due to reduced flows from key regions. Gulf oil exports have dropped substantially from pre-war levels. Russian crude supplies also show a recent decline, impacting global availability.
Goldman Sachs has forecast that Brent crude oil prices will remain in the $80-$90 range unless a new US-Iran deal is reached or the conflict between the two countries escalates significantly. The analyst said that physical oil supply continues to tighten, while prices currently reflect only a modest risk premium.
Goldman sees Brent at $80-$90 until US-Iran deal or major escalation
Aug 4 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs said on Tuesday it expects Brent crude to trade in an $80-$90 per barrel range until there is either confirmation of a new U.S.-Iran nuclear deal or a significant escalation of their conflict. The bank estimates spot B...
The price of the barrel Brent for delivery in October rises this Tuesday to 1.6 %, up to 85 dollars, pending from the United States and Iran.
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