Global Market: Goldman Sachs Sees Brent Crude Trading at $80-$90 Until Iran Conflict Outlook Clears
Goldman Sachs said visible oil inventories fell 6.3 million barrels a day as Gulf, Red Sea and Russian flows tightened.
- Goldman Sachs expects Brent crude to trade in an $80-$90 per barrel range until confirmation of a new U.S.-Iran nuclear deal or significant conflict escalation, the bank said Tuesday.
- Three separate geopolitical crises simultaneously constrain flows through the Hormuz Strait, the Red Sea, and the Black Sea, driving Persian Gulf exports to about 36% of pre-war levels from nearly 80% in early July.
- Global visible oil inventories fell by 6.3 million barrels per day over two weeks, driven by reduced Gulf and Red Sea flows, a 1.3 million barrel-per-day drop in Russian exports, and stronger Asian imports; Saudi shipments declined 2.4 million barrels per day year-over-year.
- Goldman estimates spot Brent's fair value at about $80 a barrel despite ongoing Middle East uncertainty, though the bank notes physical oil markets continue to tighten even as Brent retreated to the low-to-mid $80s following delayed U.S. strikes on Iran.
- Analyst Samantha Dart outlined scenarios from $70 to $120 per barrel, with worst-case pricing reaching $120 in Q4 this year and averaging around $100 next year; Brent's 2025 swing from $138.21 to $61.08 dwarfs the $22.71 full-year range it traded in 2025.
17 Articles
17 Articles
“This Is Unprecedented”: Goldman Sachs Sees 3 Simultaneous Crises Pushing Oil as High as $120 a Barrel
Three of the world's most critical oil shipping lanes are shutting down at once, and Goldman Sachs says nothing in modern market history offers a playbook for what comes next.
The Economic Times
Times of IndiaGlobal Market: Goldman Sachs sees Brent crude trading at $80-$90 until Iran conflict outlook clears
Goldman Sachs forecasts Brent crude prices between $80 and $90 per barrel. This range persists until clarity emerges on US-Iran nuclear talks. Physical oil markets are tightening significantly due to reduced flows from key regions. Gulf oil exports have dropped substantially from pre-war levels. Russian crude supplies also show a recent decline, impacting global availability.
Goldman sees Brent at $80-$90 until US-Iran deal or major escalation
Aug 4 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs said on Tuesday it expects Brent crude to trade in an $80-$90 per barrel range until there is either confirmation of a new U.S.-Iran nuclear deal or a significant escalation of their conflict. The bank estimates spot B...
The price of the barrel Brent for delivery in October rises this Tuesday to 1.6 %, up to 85 dollars, pending from the United States and Iran.
In the course of trade, the quotations on the oil market turned slightly into the profit zone. Previously, the quotation for Brent oil had fallen to 78.11 dollars with the prospect of an agreement in the Iran war.
Coverage Details
Bias Distribution
- 83% of the sources are Center
Factuality
To view factuality data please Upgrade to Premium
