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Global Market: Bank of Japan Poised for Rate Hike as Oil Prices Fuel Inflation
On Friday, the Bank of Japan is set to raise its policy rate to 1.25% from 1%, reaching a 31-year high as the central bank joins global peers in fighting persistent inflation pressures driven by soaring oil costs.
Japan's headline inflation reached 1.9% in July, fueled by increased energy costs from the Iran war. The BOJ aims to move rates toward a neutral level of 1.1% to 2.5%, ending decades of ultra-low borrowing costs.
Around 89% of analysts surveyed by CNBC expect a 25-basis-point increase, citing higher inflation, higher wages, and pressure from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who urged BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda to take "decisive market and monetary steps."
Facing a significant communication challenge, BOJ Governor Ueda must address his post-meeting briefing as markets remain divided on whether hawkish signals will strengthen the yen or upend bond markets already seeing a sell-off.
Analysts project the BOJ will reach 1.5% by end-March next year and 1.75% in the second quarter of 2027, positioning the central bank to balance inflationary risks while avoiding overheating growth.