US EditionEven if warming is limited to 2°C, wildfires, storms and beetles may boost Europe forest loss
A continent-wide AI model shows climate change will cause a 20% rise in European forest disturbances by 2100, driven by wildfires, storms, and insect outbreaks.
- On March 5, the journal Science published a study led by the Technical University of Munich showing annually disturbed forest area in Europe could rise from about 180,000 to roughly 216,000 hectares by century's end under roughly 2°C warming.
- The research team simulated interacting stresses at plot scale and found hotter, drier conditions lengthen fire seasons and favour bark beetle outbreaks, increasing tree mortality.
- The model flags the Mediterranean Basin as a primary hotspot, noting Southern and Western Europe face the strongest disturbance changes and nearly 370,000 hectares could be disturbed annually under high emissions.
- The researchers warn that rising disturbances weaken Europe’s forest carbon sink, forcing transport and agriculture to cut emissions faster while communities near forests face longer fire seasons and threats to water, timber, tourism, and rural livelihoods.
- The EU’s three billion trees initiative, launched in 2010, has completed around 1.26 per cent with fewer than 38 million trees planted; co-author Katharina Albrich urges stronger adaptation and resilience, and the European Commission plans an award next year.
23 Articles
23 Articles
Forest fires and bark beetles could have a much stronger impact on Europe's forests by 2100 than today, as a new study shows.
An alert study on the growing threat of forest fires in Europe that could triple by the end of the 21st century, exacerbated by global warming. Reducing greenhouse gas emissions...
Scientists warn of forest damage in Europe as a result of climate change. The damage caused by fires, storms or the bark beetle would increase among all analysed climate scenarios compared to the past decades, according to a study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).
Model calculations by the Technical University of Munich show that fires and pest infestations in Europe's forests could increase sharply up to 2100. Depending on the temperature increase, there might not be any more forests like today. By Andreas Kegel.[more]]>
The damage to forests in Europe caused by forest fires, storms and weed pests...
European forests can suffer unprecedented mortality and damage from fires and pests if emissions caused by climate change are not reduced. This is the serious warning from a macro study published this Thursday in Science, in which 43 researchers from a dozen different countries, led by the Technical University of Munich, Germany, participated.
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