El Niño Threatens to Expose Cracks in South Africa's Agricultural Supply Chain
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El Niño Threatens to Expose Cracks in South Africa's Agricultural Supply Chain
Weak El Niño conditions are expected to strengthen rapidly ahead of the 2026/27 summer, increasing the possibility of warmer and drier conditions across South Africa’s summer rainfall regions. The South African Weather Service said in its July seasonal outlook that El Niño conditions were expected to continue through the summer, although their effects vary between […]
The expected intensification of El Niño could worsen the prospects for summer grain harvests in South Africa due to the risk of rainfall shortages during the new season. At the same time, the starting conditions remain better than during the severe drought of 2014-2016. After the favorable 2025/26 season, the country retains significant food reserves, so immediate risks of shortages are not expected. Food inflation in August 2026 was only [...] …
El Niño is here: should the production plan change?
For many South African grain producers, the 2026/27 summer season is already on paper. Hectares have been allocated, cultivars selected, input budgets compiled, and planting windows identified. The current El Niño event doesn’t automatically invalidate those decisions. It does, however, change the value of testing the assumptions behind them.
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