El Niño Forecast to Bring Warmer, Wetter U.S. Winter With Less Snow in Northern Regions
Forecasters say the strong Pacific pattern will send more storms across the South and could ease drought in parts of the West and South, NOAA said.
- On Friday, October 16, 2026, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its 2026-2027 U.S. Winter Outlook, forecasting warmer and wetter conditions across much of the country driven by a strong El Niño pattern.
- Driven by warmer-than-normal equatorial Pacific Ocean waters, a strong El Niño will likely shift the jet stream southward, tilting odds toward stormier weather across the South and East Coast.
- National Weather Service Director Ken Graham noted that above-average temperatures are favored across the Midwest, Mississippi Valley, and East, while the Southwest and Southeast may see improved drought conditions.
- Meteorologists warn that heavy precipitation on dry soil could trigger flash flooding and mudslides; despite the mild forecast, "even though our winter is expected to be warmer than average, we can still get snow storms," NBC 5 Storm Team meteorologist Kevin Jeanes said.
- Forecasts indicate 41 of the Lower 48 states will experience above-average temperatures, while officials caution that the Southeast, including Florida, faces increased tornado activity this winter and early spring.
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The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has released its winter forecast. It predicts that the El Niño phenomenon will have a significant impact on weather in the United States. It will bring storms and downpours to some areas of the country, while others will experience drier-than-normal conditions.
El Niño winter forecast: See a map that shows which U.S. regions will get the most snow and rain
This year’s Super El Niño “looms large” over the winter forecast for the United States, forecasters from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) wrote this week. And for about half of the country, that’s shaping up to make for a wet winter. El Niño is a climate phenomenon defined by above-average sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, and a weakening of trade winds that flow from east to west. All those changes affect…
NOAA Winter Outlook Projects Wet South, Dry North as Strong El Niño Drives Drought Shifts
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued its winter outlook on Thursday, projecting significantly wetter conditions across much of the southern United States and drier-than-average conditions across the northern tier for the period spanning December through February. This forecast is driven by the current exceedingly strong El Niño phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycle, a climate pattern dictated by ocean tempe…
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