J. Safra Sarasin: ECB to Keep All Options Open
4 Articles
4 Articles
The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to leave interest rates unchanged on Thursday. That is according to BNR's resident economist Han de Jong. ‘There will undoubtedly be discussion about whether interest rates should be raised again, but I expect they will not do so. A majority of market participants also believe that the central bank will wait and see.’
The rate markets include a status quo for Thursday's monetary meeting, on the grounds that the Council could give itself the time to assess the true transmission of the energy shock to inflation, but they are confident that the ECB will proceed with two rate increases thereafter.
IN 30 SECONDS What happened? The ECB meets this Thursday and the market consensus discards a change in interest rates after the June rise, although the tension in the Middle East revives the debate on a new rise in September. Who is behind it? The Governing Council of the ECB, chaired by Christine Lagarde, analyses an economy with downward inflation (2.9% in June) but with rising geopolitical risks. What impact does it have? For Spain, a new inc…
J. Safra Sarasin: ECB to keep all options open
Karsten Junius, chief economist at J. Safra Sarasin Sustainable Asset Management, considers why the ECB is likely to hold rates steady at its next meeting while keeping the door open to a September increase. We expect stable policy rates at the ECB meeting next Thursday and no forward guidance for the September meeting – yet also a language that doesn’t reduce market expectations of a hike in September. The ECB is likely to highlight three key p…
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