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Diesel squeeze set to last well into 2027 as Iran war disrupts supply, IEA says

The agency said depleted inventories and refinery damage will keep prices near record highs, with global diesel exports down 700,000 barrels a day in September.

  • On Wednesday, the International Energy Agency warned that global diesel markets will remain tight into the latter half of 2027, citing persistent supply disruptions and counter-seasonal stock drawdowns ahead of peak winter demand.
  • A 1.3 million barrel-per-day shortfall from Russia and the Middle East, driven by refinery damage linked to the Iran war, was only partially offset by higher supply from other sources, the IEA said.
  • Wholesale diesel prices reached record highs above $200 a barrel in Singapore and around $220 in Europe and the United States, raising goods costs and weighing on real incomes and inflation.
  • IEA members are coordinating the release of 100 million barrels of oil and diesel from strategic reserves to stabilize volatile prices amid widespread economic and political pressure on energy markets.
  • The agency warned that renewed attacks in the Gulf leave the recovery fragile, with replenishment of lost inventories unlikely before the second half of 2027 unless regional conflicts resolve.
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The International Energy Agency (IEA) warns: diesel prices in Europe could rise until 2027. The fuel crisis highlights a growing vulnerability of the European Union: its refining capacity has been declining for some 15 years.

·Issy-les-Moulineaux, France
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The engine of the world economy is stalling: Due to the conflict in the Middle East and the lack of refinery capacities, diesel remains scarce. Despite emergency clearances by the G7 for the time being, a discharge is not in sight.

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The global diesel market is facing severe shortages as geopolitical tensions, refining constraints and low inventories add to upward pressure on prices. According to Bank of America’s Global Energy Weekly, government interventions can provide temporary relief but fail to address the underlying market imbalances. The global market for middle distillates, which includes diesel, has been severely tight, with gasoil refining margins at ICE close to …

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El Economista broke the news in Mexico City, Mexico on Wednesday, October 14, 2026.
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