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Datasheet: How Is the Dispute Between Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro in SP, MG, RJ, PE and DF

Summary by CartaCapital
The error margins vary from two to three percentage points, with a confidence level of 95%

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Lean Right

Researches released by Datafolha on Friday (2) show that Lula leads the contest for the Presidency of the Republic in the first round in Minas Gerais and Pernambuco, while Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) is ahead in Rio de Janeiro and the Federal District. In São Paulo, the two are technically tied. The surveys were commissioned by Globo and by the newspaper Folha de S.Paulo. Final challenge of the election: see all the numbers of Quaest and Datafolha SP,…

·Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
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Left

The error margins vary from two to three percentage points, with a confidence level of 95%

·São Paulo, Brazil
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In the second round, Lula marks 50.1% of the valid votes and Flávio Bolsonaro 49.9%

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Search AtlasIntel released on Saturday 3 shows the president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) and Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) technically tied in a possible 2nd round dispute by the Presidency in the elections of 2026. Considering only the valid votes, Lula has 50.1%, against 49.9% of Flávio. The difference is 0.2 percentage point. The margin of error is 1 percentage point. In the total votes, Lula records 47.6%, while Flávio adds 47.4%. Whites, null an…

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The PL presidential candidate, Flávio Bolsonaro, returned to lead in the first round the race ...

State research points to different scenarios for Lula and Flávio BolsonaroDatasheet shows Lula ahead in MG, draw in SP and Flávio leader in Rio

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Bias Distribution

  • 50% of the sources lean Left, 50% of the sources lean Right
50% Right

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Folha de S.Paulo broke the news in São Paulo, Brazil on Friday, October 2, 2026.
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