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Turkish Lira: Managed Depreciation Fails to Remove Devaluation Risk – Commerzbank

Summary by bloomberght.com
According to Commerzbank's analysis, the pace of nominal depreciation in the Turkish lira has not yet reached a level converging towards fair value.

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Commerzbank's analysis of the Turkish Lira states that the rise in the exchange rate has been insufficient to counter high inflation, and the Turkish Lira continues to appreciate in real terms. The bank's senior economist, Tatha Ghose, pointed out that the failure to close the gap between inflation and exchange rate appreciation increases the risk of sharper and cumulative depreciation in the future.

·Istanbul, Türkiye
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Lean Left

As the upward trajectory of exchange rates continues, a critical analysis has arrived from the German financial giant Commerzbank that will move the markets. According to the bank, the main danger, rather than the increase in the exchange rate, is the “artificial” appreciation created by the difference between inflation and depreciation in the Turkish lira and the coming period

·Türkiye
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Commerzbank has published its new assessment of the depreciation of the Turkish lira. Economist Tatha Ghose stated that the annualized exchange rate loss of approximately 20 percent has lagged behind inflation. Noting that inflation is hovering between 30-35 percent, the bank emphasized that the Turkish lira continues to appreciate in real terms and that the risk of further currency depreciation persists.

Commerzbank's analysis of the Turkish lira noted that the rise in the exchange rate has been insufficient in the face of high inflation, and the Turkish lira continues to appreciate in real terms. The bank's senior economist, Tatha Ghose, pointed out that the failure to close the gap between inflation and exchange rate increases the risk of more drastic and accumulative value losses later on. 🚆

Commerzbank's analysis of the Turkish Lira states that the rise in the exchange rate has been insufficient to counter high inflation, and that the Turkish Lira continues to appreciate in real terms.

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bloomberght.com broke the news on Thursday, October 15, 2026.
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