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Citi: Oil Prices Remain Unstable Despite Recovering Gulf Exports

Citi said shipping bottlenecks and higher freight costs are keeping delivered supplies tight, with war-risk insurance rising to 10% of a vessel's value.

  • Oil exports from the Gulf exceeded prewar averages, reaching more than 24 million barrels per day in the week ending October 18, according to ship-tracking firm Kpler, surpassing the prewar level of 23.3 million.
  • Alternative routes accounted for around 40% of non-Iranian crude shipments in September, compared with 17% before the war, as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates increased pipeline usage to bypass the Strait of Hormuz.
  • Traders can earn around $20 more per barrel reselling Iraqi crude, while crew members receive large bonuses up to $25,000 for dangerous voyages. The Tanzania-flagged supertanker Loyalty was struck by a rocket-propelled grenade on October 16 while carrying two million barrels.
  • Around 30 vessel attacks in October account for about 20% of all wartime attacks, according to maritime intelligence firm Windward. War-risk insurance premiums have surged to as much as 10% of a vessel's value, up from less than 3% prewar.
  • JPMorgan commodities strategist Natasha Kaneva stated that Brent crude remained around $108 per barrel as traders question whether the recovery can be sustained if fighting intensifies. The Trump administration earlier explored allowing sanctioned shadow-fleet tankers to return to legitimate trade.
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79 Articles

Left

United States Treasury Secretary Scott Biscent said on Saturday: oil exports from the Arabian Gulf exceeded pre-war levels with Iran, despite recent attempts to disrupt energy shipments.

·Syrian Arab Republic (the)
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Center

The global oil market situation has improved, but uncertainties remain high.

·Helsinki, Finland
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Lean Right

The Gulf states export more oil from the Persian Gulf than they did before the Iran war. Nevertheless, fuelling remains expensive.

·Berlin, Germany
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Lean Right

Expert explains why oil prices are still above $100 a barrel.

·Oslo, Norway
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The U.S. Navy offers air and naval protection to a fleet of more than 400 'phantom oilers' crossing the Strait of Ormuz at night and with all its identification systems off Read

·Madrid, Spain
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Modern Diplomacy broke the news in Plovdiv, Bulgaria on Sunday, October 18, 2026.
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