Economists Warn Surprise GDP Growth in Q3 Masks Weakness in Canada’s Economy

Economists warn surprise GDP growth in Q3 masks weakness in Canada’s economy

Canada’s economy posted surprisingly strong growth in the third quarter, but economists looking underneath the hood offered a series of caveats that suggest weaker results than the headline figures imply. Statistics Canada said Friday that real gross domestic product rose 2.6 per cent on an annualized basis in the third quarter of 2025, marking a rebound from a contraction of 1.8 per cent in the second quarter. The Q3 results show Canada staved…

Why Our Stronger-than-Expected GDP Data Didn’t Impact Bond Yields - Integrated Mortgage Planners

Last week Statistics Canada confirmed that our GDP increased by 2.6% in Q3 on an annualized basis, marking a sharp bounce back from its 1.8% decline in Q2. That result was a lot better than the consensus forecast of 0.5%, but the bond market’s reaction was muted. A closer look at the more detailed data confirms why. Most of our GDP increase in Q3 was attributed to an improvement in our net trade. We saw a sharp drop in imports (down 8.6% quarter…

Q3 GDP report brings surprise positive top number, but worrying signals underneath

By Tom Parkin December 1st, 2025 BURLINGTON, ON   Improved net imports kept GDP positive, but falling household consumption and higher capital investment arising only from a narrow increase in…

Canadian Dollar Strengthened Sharply After Unexpected GDP Data

Statistics Canada reported on Friday that real GDP grew by 2.6% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025, which means: → a significant beat compared with analysts’ expectations of just 0.5% year-on-year growth; → Canada avoided a technical recession (two consecutive quarters of contraction) following a 1.8% decline in the previous quarter. The release triggered […] The post Canadian Dollar Strengthened Sharply After Unexpected GDP Data appeared…

The Canadian Dollar Strengthened Sharply After Unexpected GDP Data

Statistics Canada reported on Friday that real GDP grew by 2.6% year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025, which means:→ a significant beat compared with analysts’ expectations of just 0.5% year-on-year growth;→ Canada avoided a technical recession (two consecutive quarters of contraction) following a 1.8% decline in the previous quarter.The release triggered a strong rally in the Canadian dollar, as markets may have concluded that the Bank of C…

Canada Sees Surprise 2.6% Growth in Q3

Canada’s economy picked up speed in the third quarter, growing faster than anyone expected. New data shows the economy grew 2.6%, mainly thanks to stronger crude oil exports and higher government spending. This helped Canada avoid a possible recession after last quarter’s decline. Even with the good news, business investment and household spending stayed weak, mostly because of uncertainty around U.S. tariffs. Economists now believe the Bank of …