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Brazil's Lula Widens First-Round Lead; Runoff with Bolsonaro Stays Tight, BTG/Nexus Poll Shows

Lula’s first-round support rose to 42% in a BTG Pactual/Nexus poll, while a simulated runoff against Flavio Bolsonaro stayed within the margin of error.

  • On Monday, a BTG Pactual/Nexus poll showed Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula leading the first-round election with 42% of the vote, while remaining statistically tied with Senator Flavio Bolsonaro in a simulated runoff.
  • The leftist incumbent widened his lead from a previous survey that had him at 40% to Bolsonaro's 37%, though a September 21 poll showed a tighter 46% to 45% runoff margin.
  • Nexus surveyed 2,000 people between September 25 and 27, yielding a margin of error of 2 percentage points. Augusto Cury and Ronaldo Caiado each polled at 5%, while Renan Santos held 4%.
  • If no candidate secures more than 50% of valid votes in the October 4 first round, the two frontrunners will advance to a runoff election scheduled for October 25.
  • Lula's narrow runoff lead of 46% to 44% remains within the survey's margin of error, underscoring the competitive nature of Brazil's election ahead of next month's voting.
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19 Articles

Lula oscillated two percentage points up compared to the previous round, when she had 40%. Flavius kept the same 37% The post Lula grows 2% and wide advantage over Flavius in the 1st round, shows BTG/Nexus apareceu primeiro em AMAZONAS CURRENT.

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Research released on Monday (28) shows president numerically in front of the senator, but within the margin of error; survey also mid 1st turn, rejection and evaluation of the government The president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) appears numerically in front of Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) in a possible second round of the presidential race, second [...]

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The presidential race appears more open when the two main names are placed forward. BTG/Nexus research released on Monday (28) shows Lula (PT) with 41% of voting intentions in the first round, against 35% of Flávio Bolsonaro (PL). The difference is 6 percentage points. In the second round scenario, the interval decreases: [...] The post BTG/Nexus: Lula opens 6 points in the first round; in the second, difference falls to 2 appeared first in Focu…

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The 16th round of electoral research released on Monday (28) by the BTG Pactual bank and the Nexus institute on voting intentions for the Presidency of the Republic shows that President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) has 42% in the 1st round, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) has 37%. Check out the result of... Read more » The post BTG/Nexus Research: Lula has 42% of the votes in the 1st round; Flávio Bolsonaro appears with 37% appeared fir…

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BCharts Fórum broke the news on Monday, September 28, 2026.
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