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Bank of Canada’s Macklem warns global resilience ‘under strain’
Macklem said the Bank of Canada may lift its inflation outlook as Brent crude trades near $110 a barrel, raising pressure on prices and rates.
Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem warned Saturday from Bangkok that global economic resilience is increasingly "under strain" as persistent geopolitical conflicts drive up energy costs and force a significantly higher inflation forecast this month.
Refinery damage in Russia and Ukraine, combined with ongoing Middle East conflict and curtailed shipments, has increased the risk that inflation broadens and becomes more persistent, Macklem told journalists.
Crude oil trades around $110 for Brent and $101 for West Texas Intermediate, prompting Macklem to warn that nations can only release strategic reserves so many times before supplies require restocking.
Statistics Canada releases September inflation data on Monday, providing critical input ahead of the Bank of Canada's October 28 rate decision, with markets pricing a 95 per cent chance of a hike by December.
Macklem framed the policy dilemma: "Is inflation likely to come back down towards our target on its own, or are we going to have to raise interest rates to influence the path?" The 2 per cent target remains the bank's anchor.
The new quarterly forecasts for inflation and economic growth will be taken into account in the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision, which will be announced on October 28.