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Australia's central bank chief warns inflation risks materialising
Bullock said the central bank may need more tightening as oil, AI investment and extreme weather add pressure to prices, with markets pricing a 95% hike chance.
On Friday, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock testified that inflation risks are materializing, signaling interest rates may need to rise further to bring prices back to the 2%–3% target.
Bullock identified persistent inflation drivers including the prolonged Middle East conflict, rising oil prices, and the AI boom, which is exerting inflationary pressure by boosting demand for labor in key sectors.
Addressing the House of Representatives Economics Committee, Bullock noted inflation remains above the 2%–3% target for the 12th straight month, requiring a period of subdued aggregate demand growth to ease pressures.
Financial markets now imply a 93% chance the RBA will lift rates to 4.6% during the September 28–29 meeting, with analysts forecasting additional hikes may be necessary to combat stubbornly high inflation.
While the central bank expects headline inflation to remain elevated until mid-2027, policymakers must balance these risks against potential economic slowing, marking a fundamental challenge for the Australian economy over coming years.