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Australia's central bank chief warns inflation risks materialising

Michele Bullock said businesses are passing on higher costs and markets see a 93% chance of another rate rise this month.

  • Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock said on Friday that upside risks to inflation are materialising, as the bank weighs whether current policy can return inflation to its 2%-3% target.
  • The Middle East conflict and global AI-related boom are putting upward pressure on prices, while a tight labour market could amplify pass-through of rising input costs into consumer prices.
  • Policymakers are evaluating whether three rate hikes this year from the 4.35% cash rate have sufficiently tightened policy. Bullock acknowledged housing market softening poses downside risk, though financial stability risks remain contained.
  • Markets imply a 93% chance the RBA will lift rates for a fourth time this year when it meets on September 28-29. UBS chief economist George Tharenou said global central banks are clearly reacting to inflation risks.
  • Analysts now expect the RBA to hike rates twice more, reaching a peak of 4.85% by early 2027. The bank continues to debate whether current policy settings are tight enough to deliver inflation back to target.
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WTVB broke the news on Thursday, September 17, 2026.
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