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5 Forces Sinking Stocks: AI Capex, Fed Doubts, Recession Risk

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 4% and 7% from October highs amid uncertainty about Federal Reserve rate cuts and sustained market volatility, analysts say.

  • This past week, U.S. stocks slid, leaving the S&P 500 index down 4 per cent and the Nasdaq Composite down 7 per cent, while tech names like Oracle and Palantir Technologies faced heavy declines.
  • Officials face sparse data as the probability of a December rate cut fell to 30% after October Fed minutes and the delayed October jobs report arrives after the December 9-10 meeting.
  • Volatility intensified, with the Cboe Volatility Index above 20 and big intraday swings on Thursday, while the S&P 500’s price-to-earnings ratio dipped to 21.8 and nonfarm payrolls rose 119,000 as the unemployment rate reached 4.4%.
  • Some market participants see the pullback as overdue after a 38% rally from April through late October, while Jack Ablin said `I don't think investors want to run from the markets` and `What they want to really do is dig in and find opportunities`.
  • Forecasted tech capex of $350 and $400 billion for 2026 raises the stakes as the VIX futures curve is unusually flat, signaling volatility into the year-end.
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Live Mint broke the news in New Delhi, India on Sunday, November 23, 2025.
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