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El Niño Forecast to Bring Warmer, Wetter U.S. Winter With Less Snow in Northern Regions
A very strong El Niño is expected to drive stormier conditions in the South and reduce snow odds across much of the North, forecasters said.
On Thursday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its official winter outlook, forecasting numerous strong storms across the West Coast and southern half of the United States driven by a strengthening, near-record Super El Niño.
El Niño, characterized by above-average tropical Pacific Ocean temperatures, alters atmospheric circulation by shifting the jet stream, which directs storms across the southern tier and creates wetter, cooler winter conditions there.
NOAA reports an 83% chance this will be the strongest El Niño since 1950, up from 75% last month. The FOX Forecast Center warned that the energized southern storm track increases heavy rain risks, potentially fueling destructive flash floods and mudslides.
Forecasters expect the stormy pattern to ease major droughts in the Southwest and Southern Plains, while Democratic Governor Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency to prepare for potential flooding, high winds, and heavy mountain snow.
While the South remains stormy, the Northern Tier, Midwest, and New England will likely experience warmer and drier conditions than average. NOAA Director Ken Graham advised communities to plan ahead, noting that warming climate trends also influence seasonal snowfall patterns.
WASHINGTON (AP) — It seems that winter in the United States will generally be wetter and warmer, but not necessarily with more snow, according to the official seasonal forecast of the federal government and forecasts of other meteorologists.