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A major risk of breast cancer screening may have been overestimated for decades

A new analysis of eight randomized trials says timing effects may have inflated earlier estimates of unnecessary breast cancer diagnoses.

Summary by Science Daily
A new analysis suggests mammograms may lead to far less breast cancer overdiagnosis than some earlier studies indicated. Researchers reexamined all eight major randomized screening trials and accounted for differences in follow-up time, screening frequency, and screening after trials ended. Their results were consistent with an overdiagnosis rate below 5%, rather than estimates approaching 30% to 50%.

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In September 2026, a meta-analysis, published in the JNCI: Journal of the National Cancer Institute, by the team of Sisse Helle Njor, at the University of Southern Denmark, resumed the randomized trials of mammography one by one. This scientific debate has been going on for decades, and the estimates that came out of it varied from simple to decuple. The overdiagnostic of breast cancer would now appear to be rarer than announced, but this work d…

According to a new comprehensive analysis, the rate of overdiagnosis during breast cancer screening remains below 5 percent, instead of the previously believed 30-50 percent.

A new analysis of breast cancer screening suggests that the rate of overdiagnosis associated with mammograms may be less than 5%, well below the previous estimates ranging from 30% to 30%.

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Science Daily broke the news in Encinitas, United States on Saturday, September 26, 2026.
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