Science Study Finds Stronger El Niño Events in Past 40 Years

United States

9h ago

Mike Segar/Reuters

Source Analysis

Coverage

52 sources

Bias

More Center

Factuality

High

Ownership

Conglomerate

View More Analysis

What Happened

Julia Cole's team published in Science a 1,000‑year Galápagos coral reconstruction and model tests finding El Niño variability intensified roughly 36% above pre‑industrial and ~16% in the past 40 years. They say the strengthening is unprecedented in the last millennium and exceeds natural variability alone.

Key Implications

Reuters reports that Kim Cobb said the findings raise the prospect of larger El Nino and La Nina events driving faster and more severe weather and climate extremes. Nature adds that climate models project more-frequent strong El Ninos could continue this century, with consequences for ecosystems and economies.

What Happened

Key Implications

Where Sources Agree

arrows_inputEl Niño Intensification Confirmed: Sources largely converge on the finding that El Niño events have intensified significantly, exhibiting a 36% increase in variability since the pre-industrial era and a 16% jump in intensity over the last 40 years, according to a study published in the journal Science.
arrows_inputEl Niño Intensification Confirmed: Several outlets confirm that El Niño events over the past 40 years are significantly stronger than any recorded in the previous millennium, according to a study published in the journal Science that analyzed coral records from the Galápagos Islands.
arrows_inputEl Niño Intensification: Multiple outlets emphasize that El Niño events have intensified as global temperatures rise, with data from Galápagos coral records showing a 36% increase in intensity over the last 40 years compared to the pre-industrial period, according to climate researchers.

Where Sources Disagree

arrows_outputEl Niño Intensification Evidence: The study authors conclude that coral records demonstrate significant El Niño intensification over the past 40 years linked to climate change. In contrast, some outside climate experts argue the coral data reflects general background ocean warming rather than specific El Niño intensification, pointing to conflicts with recent observations.
arrows_outputEl Niño Attribution Nuance: Reports differ slightly on the study's conclusions, with some citing a direct link to human-caused warming, while others note the research stops short of formal scientific attribution.

Timeline

August 27, 2026

Science paper published: key finding: A study published in Science (reported Aug. 27, 2026) reconstructed eastern Pacific sea-surface temperatures from a millennium of coral records and climate models and concluded recent El Niño strengthening is unprecedented in that record and closely parallels human-caused warming.

2026

2026 El Niño intensifies; reactions: Temperatures across the equatorial Pacific warmed dramatically in 2026 as a strong El Niño formed (with weekly anomalies reaching ~2.7°C), prompting forecasts of a potentially historic event and mixed reactions from scientists who noted the study's implications for increased global climate extremes and the need to reduce fossil-fuel emissions.

Past 40 years (~1986–2026)

Recent four-decade intensification: Analyses of living and fossil Galápagos corals show that El Niño events in roughly the past 40 years have been stronger than at any time in the last millennium, with researchers reporting an increase in intensity of about 36–40% compared with pre‑industrial periods.