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Federal Reserve Set to Issue Interest Rate Decision as Midterm Elections Loom
Markets see a 90% chance the Fed holds rates steady as inflation rises 3.7% and a December hike remains likely, CME Group FedWatch shows.
The Federal Reserve is set to issue an interest rate decision today as persistent inflation puts pressure on policymakers. Markets place a 90% probability on the central bank holding rates steady, according to the CME Group FedWatch Tool.
Inflation rose to a four-month high of 3.7% in September, driven by rising fuel prices amid unrest in the Middle East, according to the BLS. This rate sits more than one percentage point above the Fed's 2% target.
Employers added 29,000 jobs in September, a sharp slowdown from the 162,000 added in August, signaling a cooling labor market. Benchmark interest rates currently stand between 3.75% and 4%.
President Donald Trump has repeatedly criticized the Fed for raising rates, previously demanding policymakers "LOWER THE INTEREST RATES FOR THE UNITED STATES" and do so "AND FAST!" The decision arrives in a political maelstrom just before Election Day.
Bank of America Global Research warned that holding rates risks questioning the Fed's inflation-fighting credibility, while Deutsche Bank Research suggested election timing is not a primary consideration. Markets peg the odds of a quarter-point rate hike in December at 75%.