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US auto sales seen falling as car market awaits war impact

Edmunds projects US car sales of 3.7 million in the first quarter, down 6.5 percent from the year-ago period. This decline follows unusually strong sales last year driven by tariff concerns.
Rising gasoline prices exceeding $4 a gallon, driven by the US-Israeli offensive on Iran launched February 28, cloud the industry outlook. Cox Automotive economist Charlie Chesbrough said the "current Middle East conflict adds tremendous amount of uncertainty to the vehicle market."
Cox Automotive expects sales drops of more than nine percent for both General Motors and Ford, while Automotive forecasts a 0.1 percent dip in Toyota's auto sales. Carmakers face varying headwinds from the market downturn.
Analysts expect Tesla to sell 365,645 units in the first quarter, an 8.6 percent increase from 2025 but a 12.6 percent decrease from Q4 2025. President Donald Trump's elimination of tax credits has clouded the EV outlook.
Data from the Anderson Economic Group shows sales dropped more than 40 percent after the 1979 Iranian Revolution and 12.7 percent following the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. Historical precedent suggests geopolitical shocks significantly disrupt auto markets.

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US auto sales seen falling as car market awaits war impact

Carmakers are expected to report lower first-quarter US sales as the Middle East war clouds the industry's outlook compared with unusually favorable dynamics a year ago.

4 days ago·Missoula, United States

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