Over 150 Polymarket Wallets Linked to Likely Military Insider Trading, Study Finds
ACDC said 152 military and defense wallets made $8 million collectively and drew copycat bets from whales and bots, raising national security concerns.
- On Thursday, the Anti-Corruption Data Collective reported that 152 Polymarket wallets likely traded on inside U.S. military information, collectively earning $8 million with a 97.2% win rate.
- ACDC identified 556 wallets dubbed 'Orcas,' traders placing highly successful long-shot bets of at least $2,500 in niche markets where insiders possess informational advantages, typically cashing out quickly after winning.
- Evidence suggests military 'Orca' trades attract copycat wagers from deep-pocketed 'Whales' and bots; when an 'Orca' bet on U.S. military action in Iran, copycat wagers reached $200,000 and $100,000 respectively.
- ACDC argues simple identity verification is insufficient, advocating for banning markets where non-public information is most actionable, stating "Limiting the type of people who can bet on prediction markets or relying on law enforcement investigations … will not be enough."
- Policymakers are increasing scrutiny following bets ahead of U.S. military actions, including a soldier charged for betting on Venezuela President Nicolas Maduro's removal, as the Commodity Futures Trading Commission pushes for stricter jurisdiction.
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8 Articles
Research group calls for probe of potential insider bets on military information on Polymarket
Research group Anti-Corruption Data Collective has called for investigation of potential insider bets on confidential military information on the prediction market platform Polymarket (POLYMARKET).
More than 150 Polymarket wallets may have traded on military secrets, research finds
WASHINGTON, Aug 20 - More than 150 wallets on Polymarket International may have traded on inside U.S. military information, attracting copycat bets and raising concerns that the market could broadcast signals exploitable by foreign adversaries, according to research published on Thursday. Read more at straitstimes.com.
EXCLUSIVE: More than 150 Polymarket wallets may have traded on military secrets, research finds
More than 150 wallets on Polymarket International may have traded on inside U.S. military information, attracting copycat bets and raising concerns that the market could broadcast signals exploitable by foreign adversaries, according to research published on Thursday.
115 "orcas" were identified, users who make high-stakes bets in which someone with access to insider information could have an advantage.
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