LatAm and Africa Prediction Markets, Week of 26 Oct

LatAm and Africa Prediction Markets, Week of 26 Oct

Polymarket gave Lula 18.5% on voting day, and bets on a Brazil rate cut fell from 90.5% to 24.5% in a week. See what traders expect next.

Why Prediction Markets Got the Brazilian Election So Wrong

Experts say Brazil's prediction market ban left the odds in the hands of traders with little knowledge about the election.

Brazil’s Election Upset Tests Prediction Markets’ Pitch to Brokers

Prediction markets position their prices as real-time forecasts. However, Brazil’s presidential runoff put that claim under scrutiny just as event contracts are reaching brokerage apps.London's trading industry is coming home!Both Polymarket and Kalshi strongly favoured Flávio Bolsonaro on the eve of the vote, but Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won. What the 80% Price Actually Meant On the morning of 24 October, Exame recorded Bolsonaro’s implied cha…

Lula’s Runoff Win Prompts Debate Over Prediction Market Odds

Kalshi odds swung during the vote count, while Polymarket settled its Brazil election contract in Lula’s favor.