How some US News Organizations Will Make Midterm Race Calls
Newsrooms will use AP and Decision Desk HQ vote counts, models and exit polls to project winners as polls close and results remain incomplete.
- On Tuesday, November 3, 2026, newsrooms across the United States will begin calling winners in one of the most closely contested midterm election cycles in recent years, long before all votes are counted.
- Most television networks rely on two providers for vote counts: the Associated Press or Decision Desk HQ, which use statistical models and real-time totals to declare winners when trailing candidates have no path to victory.
- The Associated Press is deploying more than 4,000 reporters to verify results, while Scott Tranter, head of data science at Decision Desk HQ, said, "We're preparing to have several thousand people working on election night to gather data."
- While accuracy rates for the Associated Press have exceeded 99.9%, retractions are rare but possible; both AP and Decision Desk HQ have withdrawn calls in the past, including the 2018 race in California's 21st Congressional District.
- An October poll found that while more than 60 percent of Americans have some confidence in election reporting, only 32 percent have high confidence, a trust gap the AP addresses through The Voter Poll for accurate data.
18 Articles
18 Articles
America votes on Tuesday. The wait for answers could be longer
The US midterm elections are set to determine control of Congress, with potential delays in results. Close contests and varied ballot-counting procedures may prolong the final declarations. Major news outlets will call races across all House and Senate seats, but timing will vary. The counting process in states like California and ranked-choice voting in Alaska and Maine could further delay outcomes.
PBS NewsHour
cascadepbs.orgInside the AP's process for calling election races
Millions of votes have been cast in this midterm election. Traditional battlegrounds have expanded in the fight to control Congress. It all comes down to one question: who won? This year, PBS News is again relying on the Associated Press to call winners in critical races. For a closer look at how the AP makes those race calls, Deema Zein spoke with David Scott of the Associated Press.
How the AP calls elections
The Associated Press will declare winners in more than 5,200 races across the country in the 2026 midterm elections. This hallmark of AP’s elections news report is produced by a dedicated team of election analysts, researchers and race callers who make up its Decision Team.
Coverage Details
Bias Distribution
- 61% of the sources are Center
Factuality
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