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Here’s What Fiscal Hawks Are Watching Out for in Budget 2026
Analysts say new spending commitments and classification disputes could keep deficits elevated even as higher energy prices and counter-tariffs boost revenue.
Parliamentary Budget Officer Annette Ryan expressed skepticism last month that Ottawa will meet its fiscal anchors, projecting deficit-to-GDP ratios will rise instead of decrease as pledged.
Recent fiscal commitments including the Pacific Link oil pipeline and a 'productivity mega-deduction' have limited Ottawa's fiscal leeway, while the government faces substantial defense spending obligations to meet NATO targets.
Randall Bartlett, deputy chief economist at Desjardins, criticized spending timeline clarity, while Colin Busby of the C.D. Howe Institute dismissed The Liberals' $60 billion savings target as "timid."
The PBO's latest outlook forecasts this year's deficit at $63.3 billion, warning it could reach $67.8 billion by 2030-31 as energy windfall revenues fade.
On Thursday, the federal government will table its second budget under Prime Minister Mark Carney, expected to pivot further from day-to-day program spending toward aggressive infrastructure investment.