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Here’s What Fiscal Hawks Are Watching Out for in Budget 2026

Analysts say new spending commitments and classification disputes could keep deficits elevated even as higher energy prices and counter-tariffs boost revenue.

  • Parliamentary Budget Officer Annette Ryan expressed skepticism last month that Ottawa will meet its fiscal anchors, projecting deficit-to-GDP ratios will rise instead of decrease as pledged.
  • Recent fiscal commitments including the Pacific Link oil pipeline and a 'productivity mega-deduction' have limited Ottawa's fiscal leeway, while the government faces substantial defense spending obligations to meet NATO targets.
  • Randall Bartlett, deputy chief economist at Desjardins, criticized spending timeline clarity, while Colin Busby of the C.D. Howe Institute dismissed The Liberals' $60 billion savings target as "timid."
  • The PBO's latest outlook forecasts this year's deficit at $63.3 billion, warning it could reach $67.8 billion by 2030-31 as energy windfall revenues fade.
  • On Thursday, the federal government will table its second budget under Prime Minister Mark Carney, expected to pivot further from day-to-day program spending toward aggressive infrastructure investment.
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The Toronto StarThe Toronto Star
+23 Reposted by 23 other sources
Lean Left

Here's what fiscal hawks are watching out for in Budget 2026

OTTAWA - The Liberal government is getting ready to reveal how a prolonged global energy shock and a series of spending commitments over the summer have affected the state of federal finances.

·Toronto, Canada
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  • 75% of the sources lean Left
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Financial Post broke the news in Toronto, Canada on Tuesday, November 3, 2026.
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