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German business morale falls as war puts recovery on ice: survey
Germany's business sentiment fell sharply as energy price surges threaten fuel supplies and could cause up to €34.5 billion in economic damage if conflict persists, Ifo institute says.
The Ifo institute reported Germany's business confidence barometer fell from 88.4 in February to 86.4 in March. Ifo President Clemens Fuest said the war in Iran has "put any hope of a recovery on ice for the time being."
Surging energy prices are raising inflation fears, with morale falling sharply among roughly 9,000 surveyed companies. The chemicals industry warned of shockwaves as costlier energy and supply squeezes force firms to restrain output.
Economy Minister Katherina Reiche warned Germany could face fuel shortages by April or May. She cited estimates of around 34.5 billion euros in economic damage "due to high energy prices, and, of course, inflation" if the war continues.
Vice Chancellor Lars Klingbeil is studying a windfall tax on energy profits. Reiche previously released 12 percent of oil reserves, while Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel urged reforms to seize growth opportunities.
German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier called the US-Israel attack on Iran a "breach of international law," contradicting the government's stance. Institutes warn the government's one percent growth forecast for this year faces significant downside risks.
The IFO Business Climate Index fell from 88.4 to 86.4 points in March. It's the lowest level since February 2025. "It's really a very broad concern," said Ifo President Clemens Fuest in conversation with Dietmar Deffner.
The mood in the German economy deteriorated significantly in March as expected. The ifo index fell to the lowest level in over a year due to the war in the Middle East.