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Brazil Election 2026: Lula Leads First Round, Runoff a Dead Heat in Final AtlasIntel Poll

Summary by The Rio Times
AtlasIntel's final pre-election poll puts Lula on 46.2% of valid votes against Flávio Bolsonaro's 43.1%, with a runoff deadlocked at 50-50.

25 Articles

Lean Right

The former mayor of the Rio Eduardo Paes (PSD) goes ahead in the poll for intent to vote for the government of Fluminense, released this Tuesday (29) by Quaest, but the difference for the candidate of the PL, Douglas Ruas, decreased. In the survey this Tuesday (29), Paes has 34%, below the 36% of the previous survey, on September 23. In the same period, Ruas went from 23% to 25%. Next, Anthony Garotinho (Republicans) appears with 9%, against 8% …

·Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
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Lean Left

Difference between former mayor and PL candidate falls from 13 to 9 percentage points

·São Paulo, Brazil
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Lean Right

According to AtlasIntel, the right-wing senator would now head a ballot against the current president, although in a scenario of technical tie

·Vicente López, Argentina
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Left

Less than a week from the first shift, the former mayor of Rio follows ahead of the pocket candidate

·São Paulo, Brazil
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Lifting shows that the distance between the two candidates for the RJ government has decreased; former mayor of Rio scores 43% against 33% in eventual 2nd round

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Bias Distribution

  • 60% of the sources lean Right
60% Right

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Estadão broke the news in São Paulo, Brazil on Tuesday, September 29, 2026.
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