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Could More Cattle Cause Record Beef Prices to Drop? Ranchers Say It's Not that Simple

Ranchers say drought, long production timelines and concentrated processing will keep beef prices elevated even if the national herd grows.

  • The average price of all uncooked ground beef reached $6.86 per pound in March, just 3 cents below the record high, as the U.S. cattle herd fell to 86 million head this year, according to the USDA.
  • Drought has persisted across much of cattle country, with about 63% of the herd in drought areas, while border closures begun in late 2024 stopped about 1 million cattle from entering from Mexico.
  • Tim Petry, a North Dakota State University livestock marketing specialist, noted ranchers hit a record 28.4 billion pounds of beef in 2022, though it takes 15 to 24 months for calves to mature before slaughter.
  • The Meat Institute noted that retailers and food service companies set consumer prices, stating livestock producers were "earning record profits" while packers were losing money.
  • About 26 billion pounds of beef are expected in 2026, but ranchers like Hatzenbuhler remain reluctant to grow the national herd, now its smallest in more than 75 years.
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Could more cattle cause record beef prices to drop? Ranchers say it's not that simple

It’s never been so expensive for Americans to buy a steak or hamburger, but cutting those costs requires ranchers to raise more cattle, and that’s not an easy ask.

·United States
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The Takeout broke the news on Tuesday, April 14, 2026.
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