Midterm Elections: Key Senate Races to Watch

Today, Americans are heading to the polls to vote in the midterm elections which will decide the balance of power in Washington. Going into the elections, Democrats have a narrow hold over both House and Senate, but Republicans are expected to take control of the House.

The future of the Senate is a lot less predictable and could be determined by four key states - Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada. Democrats need to win three of these four races to maintain control of the Senate, while Republicans only need to win two.

These midterm elections are expected to be the most expensive in history, with a record $16.7 billion spent at the state and federal level. And it’s no surprise that these key states are at the top of the list in terms of outside spending.

But it’s not just political ads that are flooding the airwaves to sway voters. Media coverage plays a critical role in framing the issues and informing the public. Let’s take a look at how these key Senate races are being covered by media outlets across the political spectrum.

Raphael Warnock, the Democratic Senator who defeated incumbent Kelly Loeffler in Georgia's 2021 special election runoff, is going up against Republican newcomer and former NFL running back, Herschel Walker. This race has received the most media attention with 81% of news articles centering on Walker and 48% of the coverage coming from left-leaning news outlets.

The top stories include a report from the Daily Beast that claimed Walker paid for a woman's abortion after the two conceived a child while they were dating in 2009. This story was picked up by 212 news outlets with the majority of the coverage coming from left and center sources.

This Republican-held seat is up for grabs as GOP Senator Pat Toomey is retiring. Democratic candidate John Fetterman is facing off against Republican candidate and television personality Mehmet Oz. Fetterman has received the most media attention with more than 1,000 articles focusing on his candidacy and 43% of the coverage coming from right-leaning news outlets.

Former President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Oz was reported on by more than 100 news outlets, but the top story of the race occurred when Fetterman suffered a stroke in May. More recently, Oprah’s announcement that she is putting her support behind Fetterman garnered a lot of attention given she helped launch Oz’s TV career nearly two decades ago when she brought him on her talk show.

Mark Kelly, a former astronaut, won this Senate seat in the 2020 special election. Now he’s facing off against Blake Masters, a venture capitalist who was endorsed by former President Donald Trump.

Overall, this race has received considerably less coverage than Georgia and Pennsylvania with 41% of the coverage coming from right-leaning sources compared to 37% on the left. The articles are pretty evenly split with Blake Masters receiving slightly more coverage at 57%.

The top story occurred when Arizona’s Libertarian Senate candidate dropped out of the race to endorse Masters just last week. This race has also produced several Blindspot stories where coverage is disproportionately coming from one side of the political spectrum. Right-leaning media outlets have focused on former Democratic party member Tulsi Gabbard’s decision to campaign for Masters, while left-leaning outlets have highlighted changes to Masters’ position on abortion.

In Nevada, Republican Adam Laxalt will face off against Democratic incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto. These two former Attorney Generals will compete in one of the closest Senate races of the night.

Of the four key races, Nevada has received the least media attention with Laxalt getting 61% of the coverage. Of the news outlets reporting on this race, 22% lean left, 24% are center and 39% lean right.

Similar to Arizona, there are noticeable discrepancies in coverage. Only one left-leaning news outlet reported on a recent poll showing Laxalt leading Cortez Masto, while only one right-leaning outlet reported on an earlier story about 14 members of Laxalt’s family endorsing his opponent.

Head over to the Ground News 2022 Midterm Election Feed to see the most covered candidates in every state along with live polling data from FiveThirtyEight. As midterm election news breaks, we’ll help you cut through the noise by highlighting which stories are receiving the most coverage and empowering you to compare how left, center and right-leaning media outlets are framing key issues like abortion, inflation, immigration and the future of democracy itself.