U.S. murders on pace for largest one-year drop on record: Report
Data analyst Jeff Asher reports a nearly 20% drop in murders for 2025 with widespread reductions in other crimes across U.S. cities and regions, marking historic declines.
- This year, crime analyst Jeff Asher reported that homicides decreased by roughly 20% based on the Real-Time Crime Index, likely the largest single-year decline ever recorded.
- Using monthly reports from roughly 570 law enforcement agencies, Jeff Asher’s analysis covers about 115 million people, representing roughly half of all murders, he wrote on Monday.
- RTCI counts show 5,912 murders between January and October this year, down from 7,369 in 2024, while Gun Violence Archive reported 14,302 gun-related deaths as of Wednesday and Jeff Asher noted sharp declines in motor vehicle theft.
- FBI timelines show the formal report arrives in 2026, and federal officials and President Donald Trump credited the decline while economist Jeremy Horpedahl urged caution about sole attribution.
- Several cities are on pace for their lowest totals in decades, including New Orleans and San Francisco, while murder rates rose in four of the 30 largest cities including Worth, Kansas City, Milwaukee, and Los Angeles.
23 Articles
23 Articles
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US murders set to fall at historic rate in 2025
US murders are on track to fall at a historic rate in 2025, according to an analysis of preliminary data.The Real-Time Crime Index tracks 570 law enforcement agencies and is typically in line with official rates.The projected 20% drop in murders from 2024 to 2025, which would be the largest decline ever recorded, furthers a trend that began in 2023; at least 10 cities are set to record the fewest murders since 1970, crime analyst Jeff Asher wrot…
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