US EditionTSX Posts Fifth Consecutive Day of Gains Ahead of Key Domestic GDP Data
Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket show over 80% probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the December Fed meeting with $187 million in bets placed.
- Published November 26, 2025, prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket show probabilities above 80% for a 25-basis-point Fed cut ahead of the Dec. 9-10 policy meeting.
- A string of Fed comments last week, including Mary Daly, President of the San Francisco Federal Reserve, and Christopher Waller, Fed Governor, boosted expectations for a December cut, while Goldman Sachs cited weaker job growth and lower inflation as data fueling confidence.
- Real-Money betting shows Polymarket volume over $171 million and Kalshi bets exceeding $15.8 million, while CME FedWatch index favors an 85% chance of a cut to 3.5% next month.
- Stocks and currencies moved as analysts say a near-certainty of a cut next month pushes stocks higher, the S&P 500 aims to regain its all-time high, and the U.S. dollar softens.
- Powell's looming term end and interviews for replacements mean investors lean on Fed officials' comments amid President Donald Trump blaming Jerome Powell for slow rate cuts.
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11 Articles
Prediction markets signal over 80% odds of Fed's 25-basis-point rate cut in December - Real America's Voice News
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Traders bet big on Fed rate cut as December odds soar above 80% on prediction markets
Prediction markets are heavily signaling a 25-basis-point interest rate cut in December, with probabilities hovering above 80% on both Kalshi and Polymarket. Traders on both platforms see only a slim chance of the Federal Reserve holding rates steady and virtually no expectation of a larger move. On Polymarket, the trading volume, or the total dollar amount wagered on this market, is a little over $171 million.AS THE HOLIDAYS APPROACH, THANKSGIV…
Pound Sterling Price News and Forecast: GBP/USD rises amid mounting expectations of Fed rate cut
GBP/USD continues its winning streak for the seventh successive session, trading around 1.3240 during the Asian hours on Friday. The pair strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) weakens amid growing expectations of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut in December.
Are U.S. rate cut expectations reasonable?
The U.S. Federal Reserve (The Fed) has two main mandates: supporting employment and controlling inflation. Until Friday, it looked as if the two were almost perfectly balanced against each other, suggesting that the Fed would keep rates on hold in December. Last week, Wall Street decided that a December cut was off the table. On Wednesday, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Fedwatch futures index placed the probability of a cut at just 30 per…
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