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U.S. murders on pace for largest one-year drop on record: Report

An analysis by Jeff Asher shows murders fell nearly 20% through October 2025, marking the largest single-year drop on record in the U.S.

  • This year, crime analyst Jeff Asher reported that homicides decreased by roughly 20% based on the Real-Time Crime Index, likely the largest single-year decline ever recorded.
  • Using monthly reports from roughly 570 law enforcement agencies, Jeff Asher’s analysis covers about 115 million people, representing roughly half of all murders, he wrote on Monday.
  • RTCI counts show 5,912 murders between January and October this year, down from 7,369 in 2024, while Gun Violence Archive reported 14,302 gun-related deaths as of Wednesday and Jeff Asher noted sharp declines in motor vehicle theft.
  • FBI timelines show the formal report arrives in 2026, and federal officials and President Donald Trump credited the decline while economist Jeremy Horpedahl urged caution about sole attribution.
  • Several cities are on pace for their lowest totals in decades, including New Orleans and San Francisco, while murder rates rose in four of the 30 largest cities including Worth, Kansas City, Milwaukee, and Los Angeles.
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npr broke the news in Washington, United States on Wednesday, December 24, 2025.
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