Published 4 days ago • loading... • Updated 23 hours ago

Focus of Australian election shifts to effect of minor parties

YouGov's final multi-level regression with post-stratification model predicts Labor will win the 2025 Australian federal election with 84 of 150 House seats.
This outcome follows a dramatic campaign shift from a 1% February chance for Labor to over 97% likelihood today, reflecting changes in voter behavior and polling.
Labor is forecasted to win key suburban and regional marginal seats while the Coalition faces its lowest seat count since 1946 and losses to independents in several electorates.
Paul Smith from YouGov said, "Labor is poised to win an increased majority," supported by data showing a 53-47% two-party-preferred vote and a net 11-seat loss for the Coalition.
The election outcome suggests growing support for minor parties and independents could influence parliamentary dynamics, possibly requiring Labor to cooperate beyond major party ranks.

Insights by Ground AI

Does this summary seem wrong?

11 Articles

All

Left

Center

Right

The Advocate

Lean Left

Early signs of a Braddon swing as first election results start rolling out

Early Braddon votes show a 14.5% drop for Liberals on first preferences. Labor gains but minor parties could sway results.

23 hours ago

Read Full Article

Sydney Morning Herald

+2 Reposted by 2 other sources

Lean Left

All the major polls are in – and they’re giving Labor the edge

The major polls also highlight the weakness in primary vote support for the major parties, raising the prospect of surprise victories for independents.

2 days ago·Sydney, Australia

Read Full Article

SBS News

Lean Left

'Choosing the lesser evil': Why some Australians vote for minor parties

Whether they're Libertarians, animal rights advocates or supporters of legal cannabis, voters for Australia's minor parties are very sure about why major parties don't deserve their vote.

2 days ago·Sydney, Australia

Read Full Article