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IMF sees ‘buoyant’ US economy accelerating this year but warns of risks from tariffs, rising debt

The IMF forecasts 2.4% U.S. GDP growth in late 2026 with lower unemployment but warns rising federal debt and protectionist trade policies could hinder progress.

  • This year the International Monetary Fund, the 191-country lender, said the U.S. economy is 'buoyant' and expected to see accelerated growth.
  • Supported by strong productivity gains, Kristalina Georgieva said the IMF noted the Fed cut its rate three times in 2025, shaping the outlook.
  • The IMF projects U.S. unemployment falling from 4.5% in late 2025 to 4.1% in 2026, inflation reaching the Federal Reserve's 2% target by 2027, and GDP growth of 2.4% in fourth-quarter 2026.
  • The IMF warned that the president's protectionist trade policies `could represent a larger-than-expected drag on activity` and expressed concern that federal debt rising from just under 100% of GDP last year to almost 110% by 2031 is a growing stability risk.
  • The IMF advised that the Fed, after three cuts in 2025, could lower its benchmark interest rate to around 3.4% from 3.6% currently but should hold off unless there is a `material worsening` in the American job market.
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IMF sees 'buoyant' US economy accelerating this year but warns of risks from tariffs, rising debt

A “buoyant″ U.S. economy is poised to see accelerated growth and lower unemployment this year. But big federal budget debts ”represent a growing stability risk,″ the International Monetary Fund said Wednesday.

·United States
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Reuters broke the news in United Kingdom on Wednesday, February 25, 2026.
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