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Study: Physical Inactivity Due to Rising Heat to Kill 500K

By 2050, rising heat could add 0.47 to 0.7 million premature deaths annually and increase inactivity by 1.5 percentage points per hotter month, study warns.

  • A new modelling study projects rising temperatures could cause 0.47–0.70 million premature deaths annually and US$ 2.40–3.68 billion in productivity losses by 2050, according to researchers from The Lancet Global Health.
  • Using data from 2000–2022 across 156 countries, the study analyzed WHO surveys and Climatic Research Unit temperature records to model temperature impacts through 2050.
  • The model shows sharper rises in already hot regions where inactivity could climb by more than four percentage points per month above the 27.8°C threshold.
  • Tropical low- and middle-income countries face the steepest impacts, worsening inequities as only about 65% meet WHO exercise guidelines and inactivity causes roughly 5% of deaths.
  • Designing cooler cities and expanding climate-controlled exercise spaces are recommended for policymakers and urban planners, as "Greater adaptive capacity, such as air conditioning, climate-controlled gyms and indoor physical activity infrastructure, buffers the effect," García-Witulski said.
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udgtv broke the news in on Monday, March 16, 2026.
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