US EditionEven if warming is limited to 2°C, wildfires, storms and beetles may boost Europe forest loss
Disturbances in European forests could more than double by 2100, driven by wildfires, storms, and insect outbreaks, even if warming is limited to 2°C, researchers say.
- On March 5, a Science paper led by researchers at the Technical University of Munich found Europe’s forest disturbances could rise from about 180,000 to roughly 216,000 hectares annually even if warming is limited to roughly 2°C.
- Amid rising temperatures, interacting stressors like droughts and extreme heat raise wildfire risk, while milder winters intensify bark beetles and insect outbreaks, amplifying tree mortality.
- The study used an AI-powered continent-wide forest model integrating local forest models and zooming to plots the size of two football fields to simulate linked processes like beetle spread.
- Rising disturbances weaken Europe’s forest carbon sink, altering runoff and sediment flows that affect rivers, farms and hydropower, while people living near forests face risks from longer fire seasons and threats to timber, tourism and rural economies.
- The study flags the Mediterranean Basin as a hotspot, with Southern and Western Europe facing strongest disturbance changes and under the high-emissions scenario nearly 370,000 hectares disturbed yearly; Northern Europe and Scandinavia show different patterns but may still have emerging hotspots.
17 Articles
17 Articles
Scientists warn of forest damage in Europe as a result of climate change. The damage caused by fires, storms or the bark beetle would increase among all analysed climate scenarios compared to the past decades, according to a study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK).
Model calculations by the Technical University of Munich show that fires and pest infestations in Europe's forests could increase sharply up to 2100. Depending on the temperature increase, there might not be any more forests like today. By Andreas Kegel.[more]]>
The damage to forests in Europe caused by forest fires, storms and weed pests...
European forests can suffer unprecedented mortality and damage from fires and pests if emissions caused by climate change are not reduced. This is the serious warning from a macro study published this Thursday in Science, in which 43 researchers from a dozen different countries, led by the Technical University of Munich, Germany, participated.
A study by the Technical University of Munich predicts a drastic increase in forest damage in Europe. Even in the most optimistic scenario, it sees a gloomy future with strongly increasing damage caused by fires and storms. In Germany, a critical point has already been exceeded.
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