A Supply and Demand Framework for Bitcoin Price Forecasting

A Supply and Demand Framework for Bitcoin Price Forecasting

We develop a flexible supply and demand equilibrium framework that can be used to develop pricing models to forecast Bitcoin’s price trajectory based on its fixed, inelastic supply and evolving demand dynamics. This approach integrates Bitcoin’s unique monetary attributes with demand drivers such as institutional adoption and long-term holding patterns. Using the April 2024 halving as a baseline, we explore model scenarios with varying assumptio…

Bitcoin is proving the link between halvings and price

This is a segment from the Supply Shock newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe. Bitcoin bull runs are pre-programmed. Act accordingly. Contrarians have instinctively challenged that notion. But the idea that bitcoin’s price moves like clockwork is becoming less absurd over time, even to the most pragmatic thinkers. Last month, on the one-year anniversary of Bitcoin’s fourth halving, we checked on bitcoin miners to gauge their production co…