Argentina’s Likelihood of Recession Skyrocketed Almost 100% Amid Exchange-Rate Tension and Political Noise

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The leading index of the Torcuato Di Tella University, which estimates the chances of a change in economic cycle, rose from 56% to 98% in a single month

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The Leader Index (IL), which seeks to anticipate trend changes in the economic cycle, dropped during August 4.72%, in its deseasonalized version, a level of decline that was not recorded since June last year, reported today the University Torcuato di Tella. Despite this fall, in annual terms, the Leader Index grows 0.20% compared to August 2024. In addition, the probability of exiting the expansionary phase of the economy in the coming months, a…

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According to a report by the Torcuato Di Tella University (UTDT), the probability that the Argentine economy will enter into recession in the next half year rose to 98.61% during August, almost twice the projection of July, when it was located at 56.16%. The data was included in the monthly survey that the Center of Research in Finance of that house of high studies carries out on the Leader Index, an instrument that "seeks to anticipate changes …

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The probability that Argentina will leave the expansion phase in the coming months to go into recession rose to 98.61% in August, in the midst of the growing financial and political tension, according to a report from the Torcuato Di Tella University (UTDT). The measurement, which is part of the monthly survey on the Leader Index (IL), marks an increase of more than 42 percentage points compared to the record of July (56.16%), reflecting another…