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Analysts Say US Moves on Iran, Venezuela Target China's Oil Supply

U.S. military actions and sanctions against Iran and Venezuela risk disrupting key oil flows to China, which relies on these imports for about one-third of its total demand, analysts say.

  • This week, U.S. operations in Tehran and Caracas—an overnight raid and daylight bomb drop—resulted in the death of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and the detention of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, analysts say.
  • The Trump administration has ramped up sanctions on shipping and refining since last year, while analysts say China’s diversified supplies and stockpiles should blunt immediate shocks.
  • Maritime threats include independent 'teapot refineries' working with a 'dark fleet' of tankers and an IRGC adviser threatening to set passing ships 'on fire,' affecting Strait traffic after weekend attacks.
  • China's leaders say they condemn the incidents but prioritize the US trade truce and summit diplomacy, with Iran ranking below other priorities ahead of the upcoming Beijing meeting.
  • Ahead of the March 31 to April 2, 2026, U.S.-China summit, analysts say the US will focus on non-tariff tools like export controls and entity listings, given the threat to China's oil supply from Strait of Hormuz disruptions.
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To understand the Chinese can sometimes help some of their millennial sayings. Deng Xiaoping (1904-1997), the key leader of Chinese economic modernization liked to repeat: “Sit on the mountain and watch the tigers fight.” And in the last two months China seemed to look from its “mountain,” almost disinterestedly, two conflicts that hit its allies harshly. In a quick succession of events, US President Donald Trump took Venezuelan President Nicolá…

·Buenos Aires, Argentina
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Brookings broke the news in on Monday, January 26, 2026.
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